Geopolitics over supply: Why Iran-US talks now drive global oil prices

econews. The reports warn of two dramatically different price scenarios. A successful agreement could inject stability into the market, potentially lowering oil prices by as much as $15 per barrel. Conversely, a deadlock or collapse of talks would significantly increase the risk of a price shock, pushing Brent crude above the $120 threshold.

This volatility is exacerbated by recent military actions, including attacks on Iranian oil facilities following US and Israeli operations, which have demonstrated the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure.

The West Asia’s geopolitical landscape has become the Achilles’ heel of the oil market. Policies enacted by consumer nations, producer nations, and non-state actors now exert greater influence than classic supply-demand fundamentals. In this high-stakes environment, market expectations are shaped almost entirely by diplomatic headlines.

As such, both bullish and bearish outcomes remain possible, making the coming weeks critical for energy markets worldwide. Any signal of progress or breakdown in the Iran-US talks is likely to trigger immediate and sharp price movements.