Uzbekistan’s Three Roads to the Sea – and None Runs Through Afghanistan

econews. A new Gulf-backed rail memorandum reveals Tashkent’s efforts to keep the Trans-Afghan option alive, while seeking alternatives to conflict with Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The transport ministries of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and the UAE’s infrastructure ministry signed a memorandum on the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) rail project on Sept. 30. Its objective is to build a railway line via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan to Pakistani ports, the UAE news agency said. Both sides will conduct technical and economic studies for the time being. The battle next door also raged in October (Daryo October 2, 2026). On September 21, 2026, Pakistan launched airstrikes in Afghanistan, which resulted in the deaths of three civilians, according to a UN mission in Afghanistan.

The memorandum is of value for money. Astana and Tashkent have been pushing for the railway but don’t have the money and know-how to do it themselves. Because the Taliban government is not recognized internationally, the project has been difficult to get international financial institutions to support. However, the deal remains modest and does not disclose the name of the Emirati company or the investment amount. Also, there is no single agreed route for a trans-Afghan line, which will be built under the auspices of Kazakhstan. The UAE has joined in on the project to build the trans-Afghan railway. The UAE has joined in the project on the construction of the trans-Afghan railway.

The price is going up as well. The estimate was revised upward to some 7 billion dollars in July for the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (UAP) line, running through Kabul and Peshawar over 649 kilometres. The deputy minister of transport of Uzbekistan reported that the construction work could begin in the second half of 2027.

The conflict is the main obstacle. From October 2025 to June 2026, the UN mission reported 499 civilian deaths and 1,216 civilian injuries due to cross-border hostilities. According to the UN mission, Pakistani airstrikes on June 29 killed at least 28 civilians, said Human Rights Watch. Warfare was undermining Central Asian states’ months-long diplomacy, since they view Afghanistan and Pakistan as their quickest path to a seaport. In addition, Pakistan has shut down its principal land crossings with Afghanistan, which hindered truck trade.

Even a completed Afghan section would not cure all the ills. Pakistan’s Main Line-1 accounts for 98% of rail freight, and the estimated upgrade of the Karachi-Rohri line, which is estimated at around 2.5 billion dollars, has not yet been approved for construction financing. The report appeared in Arab News Pakistan on 28th September 2026.

In the meantime, the other railway of Uzbekistan is on the move. By the beginning of August 2026, the construction of the CKU line was 17 percent complete, while Uzbekistan’s transport minister stated that the line could be open at least one year earlier. In September, the construction of the first tunnel on the Kyrgyz part of the route was completed. Additionally, this line is also linked to South Asia. It would connect with the Chinese rail network and would provide access to Pakistani ports, but it is years away from becoming a reality. Meanwhile, there’s been a provisional agreement between the two capitals of Tashkent and Islamabad to increase trade through China and non-Afghan routes. The CKU railway could be included in a rail route between China and Pakistan, if a trans-Afghan line is constructed. The project aims to create 500 positions, of which 300 are for residents of the Khorezm region. According to the project, 500 jobs will be created, including 300 for the residents of the Khorezm region.

Both tracks are still in operation in Tashkent. In June, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced that Uzbekistan was actively working on the Trans-Afghan corridor as well as on the railway program with China and Kyrgyzstan. According to Afghani media outlet Afghanistan International, in 2025, Uzbekistan’s deputy transport minister told the newspaper that the Trans-Afghan project is number two in strategic importance after the CKU railway. The Afghan side work hasn’t been halted as yet. Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan were mounting a joint field trip for the feasibility study, and the terminal of the Hairatan-Mazar-i-Sharif railway was reopened in May. Work on the Trans-Afghan Railway Is Moving Forward, Says Uzbek President.

I read it as Uzbekistan is playing it safe, not a gambler’s bet, with the Afghan route. It has not been spending construction dollars where the politically risky Afghan line is, but it is signing memoranda with Gulf and Kazakh partners and continues to study the Afghan line. Some analysts claim that the Afghan line was never Uzbekistan’s priority. One logistics analyst believes that Tashkent first should develop its own logistics infrastructure, and, by his estimates, it would come out cheaper and more efficient.

The learning is not a pleasant experience for Pakistan. It will need a quiet border with Afghanistan to maintain its playing-card position as a gateway to Central Asia, and with each airstrike and border crossing closed, Central Asian countries have more incentive to seek other ways to move through the region. Beijing is in a sticky situation. The informal talks it hosted in Urumqi, in April, failed to reach any consensus. It is also the partner of the railway, which Tashkent is actually constructing.